A trio of new polls is deepening concerns amongst Republicans that they could actually lose a statewide race in Texas for the first time in decades.
In the U.S. Senate race between Democrat James Talarico and Republican State Attorney General Ken Paxton, Talarico has the edge in three consecutive polls. Paxton is notably underperforming with whites, Hispanics, and independents with less than 90 days to go.
On Wednesday’s show, Megyn was joined by Mark Halperin, host of MK Media’s Next Up, to discuss Paxton’s poll numbers and why the Democrats have a legitimate chance to pick up the seat.
The Latest Polling
The latest bad news for Paxton came Tuesday when a survey of 1,200 likely voters by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University found Talarico up 47 percent to 45 percent.
Meanwhile, the most recent Fox News poll had Talarico leading Paxton 51 percent to 48 percent, and Texas Public Opinion Research put the Dem over the AG 45 percent to 40 percent. Talarico also has a slight one-point advantage in the RealClearPolitics polling average.
The betting markets remain in Paxton’s favor for now, but CNN data analyst Harry Enten sees trouble on the horizon for Republicans. While some are likening this race to the 2018 contest between Sen. Ted Cruz and Beto O’Rourke that Cruz ultimately won by a relatively slim three-point margin, Enten said a closer look at the numbers reveals two very different races.
First, on the favorability front, the senator had a net-favorability of +8 in July 2018 – four months before the election. Paxton’s net-favorability rating is currently underwater, down 6 points in general and 47 points with independents.
And then there are the head to head numbers. In July 2018, Cruz had a 6-point lead over O’Rourke in the polls. The same cannot be said for Paxton, who is down anywhere from 2 points to five points in the most recent polling. Most notably, in Enten’s view, is that independents have overwhelmingly broken for Talarico in recent weeks, moving from tied to +39 in his favor.
Talarico Takes Texas?
Halperin joked that he is “second to no political analyst for the last 20 years in laughing at Democrats wasting money trying to win races in Texas,” but he believes this Senate race could prove to be the turning point.
“Because of the climate, because of how unpopular President Trump is, and because of Ken Paxton’s unpopularity, if the election were held today, I believe Talarico would win,” he said. “It’s not just public media polls; private Republican polls show [Paxton] behind.”
In a “normal” election cycle, Halperin believes Talarico’s positions on everything from Christianity and gender ideology to veganism would “disqualify him for Texas voters,” but this is not a normal cycle and Republicans might have a candidate quality problem.
Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in a runoff to become the nominee, but his checkered personal and professional past has raised eyebrows. “The very reason… that the Cornyn folks said don’t nominate this guy are all true. He has won statewide races, but, since he’s won statewide races, he’s done a lot of things that are morally challenged, ethically questionable, and he’s not handling that well,” Halperin explained.
Not helping matters? The fact that, in Halperin’s view, Paxton also comes across as “awkward” and “uncomfortable” in media appearances.
Money Matters
But these troubling poll numbers are not just a Texas problem and do not necessarily spell doom. “[It’s] true of a lot of other races. It’s true in Ohio, Alaska, Iowa. The Republican Party is going to have to turn this around,” Halperin said.
While he noted that Talarico is out-fundraising Paxton in Texas, the GOP has the upper hand at the national level. Republicans are set to have a greater money advantage in this election than any midterm election in American history, and Halperin’s estimation puts that advantage at “over a billion and a half dollars.”
“Some of that will go to Texas, and Paxton will take the money and… spend it,” he explained. “They’ll say, ‘Do you want common sense or do you want a communist?’ ‘Do you want common sense or do you want kooky?’ And if they can do that and turn things around, they’ll win.”
“And that’s true in a lot of other races right now too,” Halperin added. “You can go check my record. There has not been a single cycle – presidential or or midterm – where I have given Democrats a chance to win a statewide race in Texas. Not a chance. Wasn’t even open to it. But it’s happening now unless the Republicans fix it.”
You can check out Megyn’s full interview with Halperin by tuning in to episode 1,374 on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you like to listen. And don’t forget that you can catch The Megyn Kelly Show live on SiriusXM’s The Megyn Kelly Channel (channel 111) weekdays from 12pm to 2pm ET.