We are less than two weeks away from the start of early voting in the closely watched primary for California governor.
The race was already making national news because Republican Steve Hilton has been at the head of the pack in the open primary, which narrows the field down to two contenders regardless of party affiliation. But it is back in focus after Democrat frontrunner Eric Swalwell dropped out last week and the six leading candidates – two Republicans and four Dems – squared off in a debate Wednesday.
The Latest Polling
Prior to Swalwell suspending his campaign amid a growing sexual assault scandal, the RealClearPolitics polling average had him as the top Democrat in the race. He was in second place, sandwiched between the two GOP candidates – Trump-endorsed Hilton in first and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco in third
In new polling released since Swalwell’s departure, his former colleague in the House, Xavier Becerra, has seen the biggest boost among the crowded Dem field that also includes billionaire Tom Steyer, former Rep. Katie Porter, and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan.
The latest tracking poll released by the California Democratic Party this week showed 13 percent of likely voters now support Becerra, a jump from the 4 percent support he had prior to Swalwell’s exit. That puts him tied for third place with Steyer. In the top two spots? Republicans Hilton and Bianco.
In the open primary system, the top two vote-getters move on to November’s general election regardless of their party. With early voting set to begin May 5 for the June 2 primary, the divided Democrat field has led some to wonder whether the top two candidates might wind up being Republicans.
The Debate
That put all the more pressure on the gubernatorial debate. As Megyn noted on Thursday’s edition of The Megyn Kelly Show, Democrats are polling well on the national level heading into the 2026 midterms, but she doesn’t see California Dems having the same enthusiasm after last night.
“If you’re a Democrat, you’ve got to be feeling pretty optimistic. That is, unless you watched last night’s California gubernatorial debate in which case you’d be pumping the brakes. Hard,” she said. “California… should have the deepest Democratic field in the country, but this is what they have to choose from.”
Becerra, a former congressman, former attorney general of California, and, most recently, former President Joe Biden’s Secretary of Health and Human Services, forgot which country the U.S. is currently fighting, blaming the “war in Iraq that Donald Trump started” for gas prices.
Former Congresswoman Katie “get the fuck out of my shot” Porter – whom Megyn is rooting for purely for the oodles of content she would undoubtedly provide – didn’t fare much better when she was asked about her history of incendiary behavior, which includes berating a staffer who got in her shot during a July 2021 interview and threatening to storm off the set after imploding on a local CBS News reporter last fall. Divorce documents also accused her of dumping a pot of hot mashed potatoes on her then-husband during a 2006 domestic dispute.
In the case of the staffer, Porter said she apologized four years ago after it happened and has “taken responsibility since, acknowledging that it was not the right way to treat someone.” As it related to the CBS interview, in which she was asked how she would appeal to the nearly 40 percent of California voters who voted for President Trump in 2024, Porter seemingly tried to defend her actions.
“I would say that if somebody is treating you rudely, you should speak up,” she said. “That’s what I did when I was being pushed again and again and again, to cow, to kowtow, to give in and defend Donald Trump when he was engaged in despicable action.”
‘Racial Profiling’
Things got worse for the Dems when the debate moved onto the substance of what is at stake in the Golden State. Becerra and Steyer both fumbled through answers about whether English proficiency tests should be administered to truck drivers, suggesting such a requirement amounts to “racial profiling.”
Their Republican opponents, Hilton and Bianco, went a different direction. Hilton shared the tragic story of five-year-old Dalilah Coleman who ended up in a coma after an illegal immigrant with the California-issued commercial driver’s license slammed an 18-wheeler into the vehicle her stepfather was driving. He said the little girl is “now disabled for life.”
“That’s what we’re dealing with here. It is completely ridiculous that we have people driving on our roads who can’t understand road signs and can’t speak English,” Hilton added. “I’ve discussed this with my friend Sean Duffy, the transportation secretary, we will not be issuing commercial driver licenses, when I’m governor, to people who are illegally here and who don’t speak English. That is obvious common sense.”
Bianco’s message was similarly on point. “Let’s stop with this whole racism thing and racial profiling and all of this garbage. We have to get over this,” he said, in part. “You either violated the law or you didn’t… End of story.”
Megyn called the answers “a breath of fresh air from Team Sanity.”
Grading Newsom
California’s spiraling homeless crisis was also a hot topic. According to U.S. News and World Report, the state has the largest homeless population in the country. Meanwhile, a stunning City Journal report revealed last week that the Golden State has been providing sex-change procedures to homeless illegal aliens.
“When most Californians think about ‘homeless services,’ they imagine that their tax dollars are going to support veterans, families, and those who have fallen on hard times,” the report read. “The reality is that some homeless shelters have apparently turned into havens for transgender-identifying illegal aliens, who can receive ‘gender-affirming care’ on taxpayers’ dime.”
Even so, Becerra gave incumbent Gov. Newsom, who has been in office since 2019, an A-grade for his efforts to combat homelessness. “I would say that the governor has made efforts,” he claimed. “We’ve seen him come down to Los Angeles, actually go out and try to clean some of the streets. On effort, I would give him an A.”
Hilton wasn’t so generous. “Of course it’s an F. It shames our state, the situation with homelessness. We have about 10 percent of the U.S. population and around 50 percent of the country’s homeless population,” he said. “And as for Xavier praising Gavin Newsom for the photo-op where he tried to pretend he was cleaning up a homeless encampment, literally, Gavin Newsom did that three times in a row. Nothing changed, and nothing will change if you have one of these Democrats in power. It will be more of the same.”
A ‘Shot’ for Sanity
And there were plenty more highlights for the Republicans. When President Trump announced he was endorsing Hilton earlier this month, the GOP hopeful said he was “deeply honored” to receive the support. The debate moderator tried to spin that against the frontrunner, telling Hilton that “62 percent of Californians disapprove of the job [Trump] is doing” and asking him is “those Californians [are] wrong.”
Megyn praised Hilton’s “great answer,” in which he explained why the people of California should like that he was endorsed by the president:
“One of the proudest days of my life was the day I became an American citizen. It happened in a ceremony right here in San Francisco. So, it is a deep honor for me to be endorsed by the president of the United States. And here’s the thing that’s going to help every Californian, when I’m governor, is that we will have a constructive relationship and partnership with the federal government, which would be the case, I would hope, for any party in that situation, so that we can make things better in California. Work with the president and his administration. It will benefit every Californian to have a governor who is a partner on these issues with the president and his team.”
It’s no wonder, Megyn said, that Hilton still leads in the RealClearPolitics average. “That was a very clever way of explaining why he is so happy to have the endorsement,” she explained. “And the president’s endorsement will help Steve with the… long-suffering Republicans… It would be a miracle and so great for California if they would just elect him.”
“Please, please, my friends in California… you do have to make sure you vote… This one actually does matter,” she concluded. “You have a shot. [Hilton is] leading. If you can keep him and, God love you, if you could keep Chad Bianco also in the top two, then you’re guaranteed Republican rule, which would be great for you guys.”
You can check out Megyn’s full analysis by tuning in to episode 1,302 on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you like to listen. And don’t forget that you can catch The Megyn Kelly Show live on SiriusXM’s The Megyn Kelly Channel (channel 111) weekdays from 12pm to 2pm ET.