Democrats Flipped George Santos’ House Seat – Is It a Harbinger of What’s to Come in November?

AP Photo/Stefan Jeremiah

The Republicans’ slim majority in the House of Representatives just got slimmer.

Democrat Tom Suozzi defeated GOP challenger Mazi Pilip in a special election on Tuesday to replace disgraced former Rep. George Santos in New York’s third Congressional district.

On Wednesday’s show, Megyn was joined by The Daily Wire’s Michael Knowles to discuss Suozzi’s victory and whether it is a harbinger of what is to come in November.

NY-3 Special Election

On Tuesday, Suozzi beat Pilip by about seven points in a district that includes portions of Long Island and New York City. The Democrat actually represented the district for three terms before giving it up to run, unsuccessfully, for governor of New York in 2022.

Republicans, via Santos, captured the vacant seat in 2022, which helped solidify their control of the House. With Santos’ expulsion from Congress in December 2023 and Suozzi’s win on Tuesday, the GOP now holds just a 219 to 212 majority.

Suozzi beat Pilip by distancing himself from President Joe Biden and running to the right of his party on concerns like border security while highlighting his support of social issues like abortion. On the campaign trail, he spoke of his willingness to work across the aisle to stem the migrant crisis that is crippling NYC. “The way to make our country a better place is to try and find common ground,” Suozzi said in his victory speech. “It is not easy to do. It is hard to do.”

The approach proved to be an effective combination in suburban New York district where Republicans had made surprising inroads in 2022.

Harbinger for 2024?

While House races don’t often garner national attention, the timing of this special election made it one to watch. Megyn noted that many Democrats are feeling good today because of what they believe the result says about their chances come November.

For example, Megyn pointed to political analyst Simon Rosenberg who posted on X that Democrats have been “overperforming” and “winning” since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision that overturned Roe v. Wade, while Republicans “keep struggling.” That led Megyn to question whether this result “bodes badly” for the GOP or is simply “an anomaly.”

Knowles was inclined to believe the latter. “It’s an anomaly,” he said. “It might well be the case that the Joe Biden wins in 2024, but none of these little races that have taken place since the 2020 election are really going to be predictive – least of all the NY-3 race with George Santos having been disgraced only to be replaced by a guy who, for three terms, already held that see.”

In his view, 2024 is a totally different ball game because of the presidential component. “The thing that one has to remember is that the top of the ticket drives the election,” Knowles explained. “Donald Trump has not been on a ballot since 2020 when all of the rules were changed because of the excuses of the COVID lockdowns and and the elections were conducted in a very different way.”

While he admitted some people “totally despise the guy,” Knowles noted that a lot of people “really liked” the former president and now also believe President Biden is not fit to serve another term. “I’m not saying that it totally destroys [Biden’s] chances of being reelected,” he said. “But it’s going to come down to those two guys.”

For those reasons, Knowles is not willing to put stock in the midterm or special elections – but he doesn’t mind if Democrats do. “Look, if it makes Democrats more complacent to think they’ve got 2024 in the bag… that’s fine by me,” he concluded. “Please keep telling yourself that, but I don’t think it’s true at all.”

You can check out Megyn’s full interview with Knowles by tuning in to episode 724 on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you like to listen. And don’t forget that you can catch The Megyn Kelly Show live on SiriusXM’s Triumph (channel 111) weekdays from 12pm to 2pm ET.