As the media and left continue to grapple with what went wrong for Kamala Harris and Democrats in the 2024 election, the data is starting to paint a clearer picture of what drove voters to support Donald Trump.
A chart from the public opinion research firm Blueprint that has been making its way around social media in recent days shows that, after inflation and immigration, the most important issue for voters was “cultural issues,” which included “transgender issues.” When you narrow the sample down to just swing voters who ended up backing Trump, the cultural/trans issues moved into the number one spot.
On Monday’s show, Megyn was joined by Emily Jashinsky, host of Undercurrents on UnHerd, and Eliana Johnson, editor-in-chief of The Washington Free Beacon, to discuss the findings and how the Democrats continue to not understand what matters to average voters.
The Data
According to its website, Blueprint is “a new public opinion research initiative designed to take a sober, detailed look at what Democrats need to do to win in 2024.” The group published a report on November 8 titled “Why America Chose Trump: Inflation, Immigration, and the Democratic Brand,” in which over 3,200 national and swing state voters weighed in on what drove them to the polls.
Overall, Blueprint found the top reasons voters gave for not supporting Harris were that “inflation was too high,” “too many immigrants crossed the border,” and she was “too focused on cultural issues rather than helping the middle class.” The concerns were consistent across demographic groups, including black and Latino voters.
While both of those groups chose inflation as their top concern, swing voters who broke for Trump identified “cultural issues like transgender issues” as their chief concern. Blueprint defined the so-called “swing voters” as those who were undecided, or changed their voting preference since 2020, or were independent and have voted for both parties, or held unfavorable views of both Trump and Harris.
The Trump Tactic
Clearly understanding this was an issue that would move the needle, the Trump campaign debuted an ad in late September that zeroed in on Harris’ support of taxpayer-funded sex change operations for prisoners and illegal immigrants.
The 30-second spot, which ran during NFL games and in battleground states, ended with the memorable line “Kamala is for they/them. President Trump is for you.” A second version of the ad was later cut to include commentary from radio host Charlamagne tha God, who called the ad “effective.”
In Jashinsky’s view, this was Trump’s “best ad” and his team deserves credit for how they pushed this issue to the forefront. “Before the campaign started, voters would have said inflation and immigration are the top two issues,” she said. “But I think the Trump campaign did a lot to bring out this issue knowing that it was something that would really alienate regular independent voters and undecided voters from Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party.”
Culture Wars Continue
And even as Democratic strategists and even some politicians admit the party alienated “the normies” with their positions on so-called ‘gender affirming care’ for minors and biological men playing in women’s sports, many still don’t seem to get it.
“The number one thing that drove the swing state voters to Trump over Harris was the trans issue in the so-called culture wars,” Megyn noted. “So you go ahead and ignore it at your peril, Democrats, and get used to being a loser because that is the position you will be in forevermore until you come on board.”
Johnson believes this is an issue that is going to haunt Democrats for years to come. “The truth is that the party went way too far left and embraced a lot of issues that ended up repelling a majority of Americans,” she explained. “I think it is going to take two or three years for the party to figure out how they talk about issues that both matter to Americans and don’t repel them because… the way Democrats have been talking about [trans issues] deeply alienates most normal people.”
While Megyn said she was “late to the party” on the trans issue, she credited all those who have been sounding the alarm for years. “There have been women and men in this space for a long time who have been really pushing this and have been totally fearless,” she concluded. “I thought about them a lot last week because it is a massive victory that they made the Trump campaign make this an issue. And look at the results.”
You can check out Megyn’s full interview with Jashinsky and Johnson by tuning in to episode 941 on YouTube, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you like to listen. And don’t forget that you can catch The Megyn Kelly Show live on SiriusXM’s Triumph (channel 111) weekdays from 12pm to 2pm ET.